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Nate Silver

PoliticsEconomics & Policy

Statistician and data journalist who revolutionized election forecasting. Silver founded FiveThirtyEight in 2008, predicting 49 of 50 states in that year's presidential election and all 50 in 2012. After FiveThirtyEight closed in 2025, he relaunched as Silver Bulletin, an independent Substack covering elections, polling, and probabilistic thinking. He is the author of The Signal and the Noise (2012) and On the Edge (2024), and co-hosts the Risky Business podcast. With over 300,000 subscribers, Silver Bulletin has become one of the most widely read independent politics and data newsletters in the country.

Known for

Founded FiveThirtyEight in 2008, correctly predicting 49 of 50 states in the presidential election and all 50 states in 2012
Authored 'The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — But Some Don't' (2012), a bestseller on forecasting and probabilistic thinking
Published 'On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything' (2024), exploring risk, prediction markets, poker, and decision-making under uncertainty
Launched Silver Bulletin on Substack after FiveThirtyEight closed in 2025, growing to 300,000+ subscribers covering elections and forecasting models